UNCERTAINTY AND “BLACK SWANS” OF INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Today, discussions about the onset of the next financial crisis have intensified in the world. Most of these disputes go around specific indicators of the level of "overheating" of financial markets.
In this article, we set a goal to analyze specific indicators of the state of financial markets, analyze their interrelationship and assume the current state of world financial markets.
The main problems arising in the situation of uncertainty in the global financial markets are investigated. To such problems we include excessive pessimism or optimism, which, in turn, are the main trigger of all financial crises.
In this work, the interrelation of various indicators of “overheating” of global stock markets is analyzed and proved in detail, and explanations of the current situation in world markets are given. In more detail, we analyzed the impact of changes in the stock market on unemployment, inflation and total debt, in connection with the introduction of monetary policy methods.
One of the main works of this article is the argumentation of the fact that the financial crisis depends on a combination of factors that are indicators of its development. However, the presence of certain factors of the global financial crisis does not indicate the necessity of such a crisis. A crucial role in identifying the crisis is given to market sentiment, which suggests that the higher the level of optimism, the closer the global revaluation of assets is.